International Pest Risk Research Group (IPRRG) 11th Annual Meeting

Predictability and Uncertainty in Pest Risk Analysis

Ottawa, Canada (hosted by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency)

29 August – 1 September 2017

IPPRG 2017 participants (Ottawa, Canada)


53 participants from 13 countries!

Attendee List

Programme & Abstracts


Congratulations to our medal winners!

Best Presentation: Erica Kistner

Best Poster: Amy Morey

Best Student Presentation: Jenny Liu


Day 1 – Tuesday 29 August

Presenter Title Affiliation
Richard Baker Welcome to IPRRG 11 Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra), UK
Pierre Bilodeau Science in plant health at CFIA Canadian Food Inspection Authority (CFIA)
Richard Baker History of the IPRRG: accomplishments and intentions Defra, UK
Brian Leung Predictive ecology: modelling the risk of pest invasions McGill University, Canada
Brittany Day Research needs in support of risk assessment and risk management at the CFIA CFIA
Yu-Bing Huang The pest risk mapping and monitoring system in Taiwan Taiwan Agricultural Research Institute
Giuseppe Stancanelli Uncertainty from qualitative to quantitative pest risk assessment at EFSA European Food Safety Authority (EFSA)
Zhihong Li On the way: methods for quantitative risk assessment in China College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University
Darren Kriticos Respecting critical assumptions of probability & statistics  during pest risk modelling: How did the elephant in the room grow so big? CSIRO, Australia
Andrew Robinson Making sense of absence: a Bayesian framework CEBRA, University of Melbourne, Australia
Justine Murray Testing model accuracy when predicting pest susceptibility using expert-driven spatially-explicit models CSIRO Health & Biosecurity, Australia
Frank Koch Coping with climate uncertainty in projected ranges of pests using hypervolumes USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station
Rob Venette Introduction to Project Stinky USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station


Day 2 – Wednesday 30 August

Presenter Title Affiliation
Yu-Bing Huang Potential venue for IPRRG 12 in 2018: Taiwan Taiwan Agricultural Research Institute
Tomasz Kałuski Potential venue for IPRRG 13 in 2019: Poland (Poznań) Institute of Plant Protection, National Research Institute, Poland
Denys Yemshanov Optimal strategies in surveillance programs for invasive pests: detect early or delimit? Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service
Nicolas Meurisse Early detection of forest invaders in New Zealand: optimising surveillance effort based on spatially-explicit modelling of high-risk pathways SCION (New Zealand Forest Research Institute)
Gabriel Diaz-Padilla Inferential and geostatistical analysis to optimize sampling, monitoring, and decision making in the management of Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Liviidae) in Mexico National Institute for Forestry Agriculture and Livestock Research (INIFAP), Mexico
Xuezhen Ge Predicting the potential distribution in China of Euwallacea fornicatus (Eichhoff) under current and future climate conditions Beijing Forestry University, China
Pham Anh Tuan Estimating pest impacts under climate change: Spodoptera litura (F.) performance on brassica crops under elevated CO2 National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan
Ross Weiss Multi-species pest risk analysis of climate impacts on field crop pests in Canada Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
Xiaoqing Xian The potential invasion risk of the tomato leafminer Tuta absoluta in China Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
Richard Baker Exploring the limitations of degree day models in assessing the potential development of transient pests: Bemisia tabaci in the UK and France Defra, UK
Alan MacLeod A quantitative assessment of the likelihood of entry of the Lewis mite, Eotetranychus lewisi, into the continental EU Defra, UK / EFSA
Ana Samayoa Effects of temperature transfers on development, survival and reproduction of Hermetia illucens (Linnaeus) (Diptera: Stratiomyidae) National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan
Jenny Liu Swede midges and when they emerge: creating a predictive model of the Contarinia nasturtii life cycle University of Guelph, Canada
Rob Venette Utility of simple mechanistic models of winter mortality for invasive alien species USDA Forest Service, Northern Research Station
IPRRG Executive Committee IPRRG 2017 business meeting


Day 3 – Thursday 31 August

Presenter Title Affiliation
Melanie Newfield Wading through rivers of information: detecting and managing emerging risks to plant health New Zealand Ministry for Primary Industries
Godshen Pallipparambil Objective Prioritization of Exotic Pests (OPEP): developing a framework for ranking exotic plant pests Center for Integrated Pest Management (CIPM), North Carolina State University, USA
Erica Kistner Climate change impacts on the invasive brown marmorated stink bug USDA Midwest Climate Hub
Senait Senay and Richard Baker Project Stinky: establishment team update InSTePP, University of Minnesota, USA and Defra, UK
Darren Kriticos Project Stinky: impact team update DEFRA, UK
Jason Pollard Emerald ash borer: lessons learned in Ottawa City of Ottawa Forestry Services


Day 4 – Friday 1 September

Presenter Title Affiliation
Glyn Jones A generic decision tool for assessing response options to tree pests in the UK Fera, UK
Godshen Pallipparambil Facilitating trade by improving data quality in globally consulted pest information resources CIPM, North Carolina State University, USA
Neil Audsley, Glyn Jones and Alan MacLeod The risk analyst, the entomologist and the economist: a North American road trip to inform UK plant health research Fera (Audsley and Jones) and Defra (MacLeod), UK


(Poster presenters had the option of making their posters available online after the conclusion of the meeting.)

Presenter Title Affiliation
Salla Hannunen Exploring the cost-effectiveness of plant health surveys Finnish Food Safety Authority, Evira
Ana Samayoa Temperature effect on the duration of the development of Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae) National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan
Muriel Suffert Identification of pests likely to be imported with fruit to Europe European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organisation (EPPO)